Are We Nearing the Bottom of the Real Estate Market Cycle?

After running five iterations of statistics and reflecting on my biggest aha’s, one chart keeps catching my eye. I’ve always loved studying history—especially when it comes to real estate trends—and this one tells quite a story.

Take a look at the historical home sales chart below, which tracks U.S. sales all the way back to 1990. Pay close attention to the 2006–2011 period, then compare those numbers to 2021–2025. Notice anything familiar?

To me, 2024 feels a lot like 2010—the bottom of the last real estate cycle. And if that pattern continues, 2026 could look like 2011, with roughly 4.3 million home sales nationwide.

Here’s where it gets interesting: if interest rates begin to normalize and we see numbers starting with a 5, home sales could rebound to 4.5–5.0 million annually—mirroring the recovery we saw in 2012–2013 after the last correction.

That kind of rebound could mark the start of the next growth cycle in real estate, setting the stage for stronger sales through 2027–2029.

Can I get an amen?

-Andy Peters